It doesn’t matter which way or what statistics we look at regarding 2024 the only conclusion is that it was a wet, wet, year. Starting with the annual figure, which was 2,398mm, or, 54 per cent above our long-term average of 1,554mm. A whopping 844mm above the average.
The scene was set by the end of the first quarter with the rainfall being 1,203mm, which almost double the average of 623mm. And 580mm was the amount the three-month average was exceeded by. January and March require special mention with both having heavy rainfall at 549mm and 510mm respectively.
This sort of rainfall takes quite a few days to occur, so in the first three months of 2024 we enjoyed (?) rain on 58 days or one fine day in three. Sunny Queensland?
And it didn’t stop at the end of the first quarter with April continuing the trend delivering 340mm or 216 per cent above average. The total for the first four months all but equalled our total average annual rainfall, in fact, only missed by 5mm. So, all the next eight months were going to do was determine just by how much we would exceed our annual average.
April made sure it contributed to the wet days by having 15, this meant the total for the first four months of 2024 was 74 giving us 62 per cent wet days, or, just on two wet days out of three.
The next eight months of rain could be considered average, with months over the average and others missing the average. For the eight months in question, we had 855mm which was only 100mm above the average of 755mm. June was our driest month of the year only getting 26mm or 25 per cent of the monthly average. November was by far the wettest for the eight months delivering 233mm or 197 per cent of average. Swings and roundabouts worked a treat finishing close to average.
Our number of dry days improved as a percentage, only getting rain on 91 days averaging 36 per cent or roughly one wet day in three. Massive turnaround from the first four months.
For those of us who work its important which days of the that the rain falls on. Rain fell less on Fridays and Saturdays, 20 and 23 days for the year respectively. Surprisingly, there wasn’t much difference to the day the rain fell most often, with Monday and Tuesday taking the lead with 27 each. The day of the week that received most rain was Wednesday with a whopping 507mm and the driest Monday with a meagre 184mm. The remaining five days spanned a range of between 273mm to 405mm and days of the week on which these rainfalls occurred happen to be Saturday and Sunday.
Sorry, the rain gods tried hard but just couldn’t get it right for us workers.
I’m reluctant to forecast the weather, if the BOM with all their resource get it wrong, what hope do I have. I get asked regularly” is it going to rain today?”My answer is usually “I’ll tell you tomorrow morning!”
If I had to forecast the rainfall for 2025 I’d rely on the old adage, “if you’re trying to forecast the future have a look at the recent past”. With this in mind after eight months of reasonably settled weather we could rightfully expect this pattern to continue and finish up with close to average rainfall for 2025. BOM is forecasting increasing rain however this is normal for the summer period.
Finally, you may be only a couple of kilometres away from Sunrise Beach however your rainfall figures could be quite different, but the trend usually remains the same.
