Arthur Gorrie
Early betting markets are strongly favouring a Labor win in the 21 May election, according to odds published on Monday by online bookmaker Sportsbet.
But the markets are betting on LNP incumbent Llew O’Brien to retain the Wide Bay federal electorate.
Though not a perfect predictor of election results anymore, betting markets still hold their own for accuracy against the professional random sample opinion polls, which also no longer have much of a track record.
With odds generally based on support from punters, the favourite is for a Labor win overall, paying $1.70 for a $1 bet.
The Coalition is considered less likely to win, but at $2.10, is not a longshot.
A win by anyone else is hardly considered possible, with the bookies paying $67 in the event of any other outcome.
The Sportsbet market for Wide Bay has Llew O’Brien as favourite with a payout of $1.01 for the win.
Second favourite at the start of the week was Labor’s Geoff Williams (paying $14), followed by Independents Kelli Jacobi and Tim Jerome (both offering odds of $34).
After that, the odds get higher as the market judges victory to be less likely.
One Nation’s Nathan Buckley is fetching $51, Craig Armstrong for the Greens $91, Tracy Bennett for United Australia Party $101.
Andrea Newland for Independent Medical Options Party, Daniel Williams for the Australian Values Party and John Woodward for the Australian Federation Party are paying $151 for a win.
