Harry, Harry, Oi, Oi, Oi!

Harrison Roach on his way to victory at Manly earlier in the season. Photo WSL.

Noosa’s Harrison Roach goes into the last WSL world title event of the season, the Cuervo Classic Longboard Pro at Malibu in California next week, as a firm favourite, but in this three-event tour, nothing can be taken for granted.

For starters, the final event is worth double points and all competitors get a throwaway result, meaning that if any of the top seeds win the 10,000 points on offer for first place at Malibu, they will almost certainly be the next world longboard champion. For example, the men’s winners of the two events held so far, Harrison Roach and old rival and three-times world champion Taylor Jensen, each have 5000 points in the bag, with the same ninth place backup of 1575 points. If either wins at Malibu, they take the title.

Next best placed are current rankings leader Kaniela Stewart of Hawaii and UK’s Ben Skinner, both with a second place of 3900 points. If either of them wins, Roach or Jensen would have to place second to tie and force a surf-off for the title. The only other real chance is Australia’s Declan Wyton, fifth in the rankings, who is holding a best score third place of 3042 and would need to have Harry and Taylor drop out at the quarters latest.

Of course, anything can happen in a world title decider, but Malibu is not a fickle wave, even this late in the season for a south swell, so we really have to look at known performers at the Bu with a chance from the outside. For mine, it boils down to two surfers who skipped an event but are both holding third place 3042 points. California’s Kai Takayama is a fine stylist with explosive touches who knows Malibu well and could shine. Justin Quintal is a Florida goofy-foot who already has a world title under his well-stretched belt and can turn it on anywhere.

So it gets down to form, which is really hard to judge when you see so little of the longboarders on the world stage, but to start from the top of the rankings, Kaniela Stewart has to win at Malibu or it’s all over. He’s number one for being consistent on pretty ordinary beach breaks over the two events this year, but having watched him mature as a competitor in Noosa and in Mexico, I know he’ll get there soon for a title, but maybe not this year.

Harry Roach and Taylor Jensen have been slogging it out in finals for more than a decade, with about equal returns, and I hope that’s what it comes down to in Malibu. Although worlds apart stylistically when they first hit the radar, they are now balanced in their ability to play to conditions. But the most important factor might be attitude. Harry wants a world title, no question about it, but it’s also not the only thing in his surprisingly intellectual world. And he and partner Edie have just bought five acres outside of Noosa, so there’s that to think about too.

Taylor and wife Nava are still adapting to post-Covid situations, free at last to travel with the kids between their home bases of San Diego and Angourie. Plus he’s nudging 40 and he was a stranger to the podium after a few lean years when he won at Huntington in August. He’s a far more relaxed dude than he was when I met him on a boat trip long ago, but I’ve never seen a more determined competitor. And he’s got everything in his arsenal to win at the Bu.

The prediction: I think Harry can do this, and he deserves it. If he doesn’t, it won’t break him. He told me on the phone the other day, there’s still the housewarming party to come home to. But I hope it’s his time.

Spoilers? Kani is a bigger threat than Taylor, in my view. But watch out for Quintal in the rear view mirror.

The women? Three-times world champion Honolua Blomfield of Hawaii has an almost unassailable lead with a first and a second. Her only threat is the elegant Brazilian goofy-footer Chloe Calmon, holding a second. I’ve seen Chloe surf in Noosa and at Malibu and she has a touch of Joel Tudor about her backside approach. She could do it, but my money is on Honno for a fourth title.

FOOTNOTE: Apologies in advance. I couldn’t resist sharing the undoubted high point of my long ago and somewhat brief career as a male model. My good mate and former colleague Steve Cooney found a bunch of shots we did together for Rip Curl wetsuits when he was researching for his recent book Unearthed. I’d overlooked them but found them again the other day. Look, we were both working for Tracks magazine. I was the new editor, he was the new ad manager. Rip Curl was not then the global titan it would become, but we’d got a back cover ad out of the bastards and we were on deadline. No one else was around to pose in the new long john. We did our best.